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In the evolving trading model and market platform, the basic structure of the financial market (which can be concluded as anonymous or known transactions between opponents) has remained unchanged for many years. Meanwhile, with the influence of advanced technology and data-driven innovation, financial markets have witnessed significant changes in trading methods in recent decades.
In the late 20th century, quantitative investment methods were widely adopted, groundbreaking research based on investment and portfolio theory, transforming the transition from traditional flooring or voice-based transactions to electronic or computer-based transactions. Theories and models such as modern portfolio theory, capital asset pricing models, effective market assumptions, option pricing models, and three-factor models have stimulated a new wave of automatic trading, including algorithms or high-frequency trading.
The outline of massive changes reshapes the financial market
The year after GFC, the uncertainty in the macroeconomics was exacerbated, resulting in a huge shift in the microstructure of the market, accompanied by an increase in volatility and an index of global trade volume. Furthermore, in recent years, the continued surge in artificial intelligence (AI) has fundamentally reshape the information paradigm in trade and trading decisions, shaking buyer motivations and increasing competitive pressure on stock exchanges.
Exponential growth of trade volume
World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) data shows that the number of cash stocks through electronic order books has increased by more than 3.5 times over the past decade (2014: 15.35 billion, 2024: 54.65 billion). Exchange-traded derivatives (ETD) data show that the annual volume of equity derivatives has increased by 13 times – from (2014: 11.77 billion: 2024: 154.05 billion). Similarly, over the past decade, interest rates, commodities and currency derivatives have increased by 2.1, 2.2 and 1.5 times year-on-year. It is worth noting that in 2024, ETF derivatives have grown by more than 6 times during this period.
Transfer of market microstructure
In recent years, innovation in trading models has led to major changes in the market microstructure and price discovery mechanism. Balanced transparency and market impact, the spread of new dark pools provides enhanced price discovery and protection for large orders. In addition to traditional order types, new types such as midpoints, dynamic midpoints extend life, sweep (dark or lighted), plus (limit and iceberg) and block (condition and binding) orders provide flexible order conditions.
Within fixed income and forex trading platforms, the enhanced construction of dealer-to-seller (D2D), dealer-to-customer (D2C) and all-around trading models can achieve different execution modes including RFQ, order book and streaming services. Recent developments, such as 24-hour trading, T+1 settlement and CCP interoperability, have significantly affected the shape of emerging trading patterns.
Expand the new information paradigm
A recent study conducted by Stanford School of Business and Boston College-Carol School of Management found that in 30 years, AI fund managers seeking Alpha performed better than human portfolio managers with an average yield of 600%. It does not imply human control over transaction decisions, which emphasizes the growing role of AI in automatic transaction decisions.
In proliferating AI waves, new ways to reveal different insights from different datasets fundamentally change the approach to transaction decisions. The application of AI/ML and large language models (LLMS) adds new capabilities to quickly interpret large amounts of alternative data and correlate qualitative cues with real-time analysis of financial and market data to derive trading signals and predictions.
The continued global growth in financial market data and analytics highlights the trend of more data and AI in transaction decision-making. Burton-Taylor International Consulting reported that global spending on financial market data and news hit $44.3 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 7.5% between 2020 and 2024. In addition, it is estimated that the investment management industry’s spending on alternative data in 2024 is $800-1.2 billion.
Transformation of AI-led trading environment
Non-standard nuances in pre-trade decision analysis
Until recently, algorithmic trading strategies have relied primarily on historical and time series analysis as well as market microstructure patterns. Through generated AI-enhanced market research and pre-trade decision analysis, companies have found new ways to identify emerging topics by integrating macroeconomic, geopolitical and market events and investor and intermediary perspectives to discover unique trading insights.
In addition to relying on statistical arbitrage from macro or micro events and market microstructure models, companies seeking AI-driven trading alpha are increasingly focused on faster integration of unconventional research sources, while enhancing real-time automation of intermediate and backend information. While leveraging non-inertial insights, companies continue to absorb traditional nuances of market activity insights in macroeconomic and financial indicators, regulatory developments, company disclosures, and trading strategies.
Adaptive (self-learning) trading strategy
In an isolated market structure based on asset class, the complex interactions of liquidity, influence and dealer intermediary dynamics can broadly affect the quality of execution, timing risks and transaction costs of investment companies. In addition, differentiated trading methods for different asset classes require more adaptive trading strategies and clever orchestration of execution performance monitoring to minimize slips, inadequacy, cost and quality deviations in arrivals. In addition to traditional indicators – Based on predefined execution plans, the adaptive execution plan utilizes macroeconomic and geopolitical events and theme-driven signals to improve transaction performance, in addition to traditional indicators – IE, quantity, volatility, price, liquidity, cost, fill rate, adaptive execution plan.
As Advanced Analytics drives the trading engine, the next generation of Algo wheels is bounded to enhance the boundaries of enhanced algorithmic transactions for speed, execution quality and transparency. These systems quickly adapt to real-time market events by quickly adjusting order slicing, pricing and routing conditions, thereby ensuring optimal execution in turbulent markets. In addition, liquidity inserts into the underlying trading forms of related assets (cash and derivatives markets, indexes and ETFs, or through triangle arbitrage in the money market while browsing the lens of peer activity) can significantly improve execution performance.
Real-time execution performance: risk and transaction cost analysis
AI-driven systems enhance real-time execution performance monitoring by predicting market microstructure patterns and promoting timely interventions to optimize participation levels and in-flight execution. The A-Aigment dashboard enables real-time visualization and drilling of execution quality, risk and cost through forecast heatmaps for forecasts and execution phases. These features can lead to volatility and adverse market conditions, better align execution quality and cost benchmarks, and support more appropriate hedging and risk control thresholds. Indicative perspectives on performing performance analysis in real time:
Importantly, equity, Forex and other liquid ETD derivatives with low contact transactions are more suitable for AI-driven automatic monitoring. However, fragmented and complex trading models in the fixed income market require high-touch experts and are not yet ready for a widespread adoption of automated methods.
Resilience and adaptability of transaction infrastructure
In the evolving market dynamics, companies need to implement adaptive trading systems and processes to respond to changes in market structure and ensure seamless connectivity with multiple data sources as well as new trading venues, InterDealer broker platforms and counterparties. Given the criticality of high-performance trading platforms, AI-enabled tools provide considerable benefits for IT operations and performance monitoring. By predicting the demand for IT infrastructure resources, human oversight can be enhanced to improve observability to provide and load balancing, and to monitor operational performance and predictions of failure points for downgrade and timely classification measures.
AI leverages insights from past pattern analysis and predictive assessment of vulnerabilities to support the adoption of a resilient operational paradigm with preventive bias and better calibration of risk tolerance thresholds. As cyber events increase, third-party and fourth-party risks, AI can make risk scenarios recursively reassessment by incorporating the latest knowledge of risk intensity.
Need for enhanced guardrails in AI-driven transaction structure
A series of technological developments will certainly have a more profound impact on the operation of financial markets. As the trajectory of AI adoption continues to rise, the landscape of AI progress is expected to be shaped by more complex technical capabilities – EG, deep neural networks, computer vision, speech recognition, etc. While emerging models of AI-driven trading enhance responsiveness and adaptability, it also introduces significant new risks. The use of the same AI models and tools under the influence of noisy, uncertain deterministic analysis and insights poses a serious risk of flash crashes in the direction and exploitation of trading strategies. It highlights the need for thorough testing of algorithms and market-wide stress tests, other circuit breakers, and kill switches to maintain market integrity and resilience.
Importantly, AI-led transactional innovations rely on building AI governance structures and practices, and complying with data privacy and protection standards to protect the risks of the AI system’s life cycle. Of course, the governance of AI systems cannot be regarded as another combination of standardized tick boxes.
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